In 2016, Russia’s lubricants market shrank further by 1.8 percent year-on-year, and totaled 1.58 million tons. However, this loss was significantly milder than the 4.7-percent drop that occurred in 2015. According to RPI forecasts, the size of the market will continue to shrink at a slower pace. In coming years, the trend may be reversed as the market could grow potentially by 6.2 percent by 2020, and top 1.67 million tons. 

The automotive transmission oil market is characterized by similar trends. Last year, transmission oil sales in Russia totaled 69,000 tons, signifying a slight decrease over 2015. Meanwhile, RPI analysts forecast a turnaround in 2017, which could bring about the market’s minimum growth. By 2025 it could grow approximately by 10 percent and reach 76,000 tons.

The size of transmission oil consumption largely correlates with the size of Russiaćs car fleet, which has considerably shrunk over the last two years as national economy falterd and the local population’s purchasing power weakened. In 2016, new car sales in Russia dropped by 11 percent to 1.43 million units, but as early as this year they could bounce back by approximately 4 percent, eventually reaching 1.48 million.

One of the key tendencies in Russia’s transmission oil market is the steady growth of the automatic transmission fluids’ (ATF) market share for automatic gearboxes, which in 2016 grew to 23 percent, while the share of transmission oil for mechanical gearboxes dropped to 77 percent. In the same year, the sales of cars with automatic gearboxes for the first time in history topped the sales of cars with mechanical gearboxes. In January-September 2016, their share totaled 51 percent of all cars sold.

Among general industry trends, we should single out growing requirements in regard to fuel economy, extension of transmission oil change intervals, which stimulates development of new products, primarily those for automatic gearboxes.

The above-mentioned aspects as well as other market trends and specifics require scrutiny and should be taken into account by both lubricant producers and distributors when making operational and strategic decisions.

Compared to previous editions, the “Automotive Transmission Oil Market: Current State, Forecast to 2025, Analysis of Key Players and Sales Channels“ report is a completely new product, which offers updated information and in-depth analysis.

- The general industry section devoted to lubricant markets in Russia and the Customs Union member countries. In this section we deal with the demand-and-supply aspect of the market, including its current state, as well as forecasts of manufacturing, consumption, export-import operations, company shares 

- Analysis of the companies’ market shares in the automotive transmission oil market

- Detailed competitor benchmarking including sales volumes, sales systems specifics, analysis of strengths and weaknesses, growth potential in the Russian market

- Analysis of car fleets and consumption specifics in Russia’s largest region (Moscow and the Moscow region, St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region, etc)

- ATF market analysis and calculation of shares of key fluid types 

- Analysis of sales channels’ specific features, long-term forecast of redistribution of market shares held by different sales channels, consumer profile creation

- The report is released as a detailed presentation in PDF format and an attachment in the form of an Excel spreadsheet with key research findings and figures, thus combining a modern data presentation format with an opportunity to further analyze the data 

- Data collection and analysis of industry statistics (Central Dispatching Department of Fuel and Energy complex, SPARK, Federal Customs database, etc)

- Analysis of Russia’s car fleet with breakdown by brand, model, and utilization rate

- Collection and systemized presentation of technical requirements with breakdown by transmission oil type for different car brands and models

- Transmission oil consumer surveys including those conducted at forums and industry-related websites

- Analysis of Russia’s production of cars and internal combustion engines

- Collecting data on the largest companies operating in the Russian market, legended interviews 

- Interviews with representatives of the largest retail chains and service stations

- Interviews with industry experts

Detailed elaboration and high accuracy of collected market data qualify it for use in preparing and making operational, strategic, and investment decisions.

Тhe “Automotive Transmission Oil Market: Current State, Forecast to 2025, Analysis of Key Players and Sales Channels“ report is intended for the following industry groups and communities:

• Russian lubricants producers

• Foreign lubricants producers 

• Blending companies

• Additives producers

• Distributors and dealers

• Manufacturers of lubricant production equipment 

• Banks and investment companies

• Consulting firms

For over 20 years, RPI has been conducting research and consulting projects for petroleum production, refining and retail sales of oil products in Russia and CIS. For more than 10 years, RPI has been hosting a major event in the lubricants industry in Russia and CIS, “Moscow International Lubricant Week.” Our copious industry experience, our tremendous analytical database, and the access to leading industry experts and company representatives help RPI create an unbiased, realistic portrayal of the market and a highly precise forecasting model. 

a. Historic analysis and consumption forecast in 2013-2025

i. Consumption forecast for main market segments

ii. Key consumption specifics 

b. Lubricants supply and demand balance in Russia and Customs Union countries with a breakdown by product group:

i. Production

ii. Import

iii. Export

iv. Consumption

c. Market shares held by major players in packed and bulk lubricants sectors in 2016.

a. Cars

b. Light commercial vehicles

c. Trucks

d. Buses 

a. Shares held by various players in the automotive transmission oil market

b. Analysis of competitors’ strengths and weaknesses

a. Forecast of sales channels share redistribution