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Outlook for Import Substitution of Oilfield Services Equipment in Russia: No Easy Way Out
Outlook for Import Substitution of Oilfield Services Equipment in Russia: No Easy Way Out
Released: December 2014
Language: Russian or English
Quanity: Near 100 pages
Format: book and CD
Delivery: express shipping (2-4 days)
Price: € 2.250
1 EUR = 50 RUB
Price in rubles -112 500 RUB

The Russian oilfield services equipment marketcurrently stands on the threshold of radical changes. The country could experience a shortage of mission-critical technology for its oil and gas industry due to the imposition of sanctions by Western countries on supplies to Russia of equipment and solutions for Arctic, deepwater and shale projects. This, in turn, could lead to a reduction of the scope of hydrocarbon production in the medium term. The dependence of Russian oil companies on Western equipment, according to various estimates, has reached 60-80 percent for most categories, and it will be no easy matter to replace it with Russian analogs anytime in the near future.

The prevailing situation is forcing Russian E&P and OFS companies to seek out alternative suppliers of equipment both inside the country and in Asian countries, i.e. those that do not participate in the sanctions against Russia. The Russian companies that are capable of rapidly replacing banned equipment with similar facilities of their own production will gain an opportunity to strengthen their market positions and conquer new niches. In segments where domestic manufacturers do not possess advanced technology, the market could be redistributed among Asian companies (mainly Chinese), for which the current situation in Russia opens up a whole range of new opportunities.

Which types of Western equipment are currently the most critical for the Russian oil and gas industry? Which Russian manufacturers have the ability to scale up their footprint in these niches, and which Asian companies will they have to compete with? What challenges and opportunities are related to the import substitution of Western equipment in the short and medium terms?These and other issues are addressed in RPI’s new study dedicated to the outlook for import substitution of oilfield services equipment in Russia in light of the current geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions.

This research report analyzes the current environment of the Russian oil and gas industry, examines scenarios pertaining to the development of O&G production in the country in view of external factors and provides an assessment of the demand for oilfield services equipment required to implement upstream projects in the pipeline until 2020. Separate attention in the study is devoted to an overview of foreign equipment, the import of which is most sensitive for the Russian oil and gas industry, as well as issues related to the maintenance and repair of previously purchased equipment. The final section of the report offers an analysis of options for substitution of the most hard-to-replace types of OFS equipment in the short and medium terms.

The main sections of the report cover the following:
1. The current situation and projections for development of oil and gas production in Russia until 2020
2. Factors impacting the expansion of Russias O&G and oilfield service industries
3. Overview of Western-made equipment, the import of which is most sensitive for Russian oil and gas production
4. Analysis of options for import substitution of Western equipment and spare parts by way of domestic production and supplies from Asian countries

Thestudyprovides in-depth analysis of such equipment segments as: drilling rigs, top drives for drilling rigs, floor wrenches, hydraulic fracturing equipment, and MWD/LWD equipment. Each type of equipment includes a market assessment, current supply and demand and quantitative projections for the near future.
This report could be a valuable tool for E&P and OFS companies in the strategic decision-making process when attempting to evaluate the range of current and potential suppliers of equipment required as part of import substitution measures.

The insights offered in the report could assist manufacturers of equipment in gaining a better understanding of the outlook for market expansion, assessing their own market positions in terms of comparative analysis and adjusting their strategic plans in view of the competitive environment.
The study might also be helpful to banks and investors in identifying prospective projects that provide for upgrading the production of equipment by Russian companies or manufacturing brand new products, as well as assessing any possible risks that may arise during the financing of these projects.
1 Introduction. Main Trends of the Russian Oilfield Services Market
2 Current Situation and Forecast of the Expansion of Oil and Gas Production in Russia in View of Current Factors and Risks

2.1. Current State of the Oil and Gas Industry in Russia
2.2. Current and Future Upstream Projects in the Country
2.2.1. Bashneft
2.2.2. Gazprom Neft
2.2.3. LUKOIL
2.2.4. Rosneft
2.2.5. RussNeft
2.2.6. Slavneft
2.2.7. Surgutneftegaz
2.2.8. Tatneft
2.3. Outlook for Russian Oil and Gas Production From 2014 Through 2020
2.3.1. Forecasting Methodology
2.3.2. Forecast of Production Drilling Trends
2.3.3. Forecast of Horizontal Drilling Volumes
2.3.4. Forecast of Exploration Drilling Volumes
3 Factors Exerting an Impact on the Russian Oilfield Services and Equipment Market
3.1. Macroeconomic Environment
3.1.1. Slowdown in Russia’s Economic Growth
3.1.2. Decline in Oil Prices on Global Markets
3.1.3. Ruble Depreciation and Higher Cost of Imported Equipment
3.2. Geopolitical Situation
3.2.1. Ban on Supplying Technology and Equipment for Russian Upstream Projects
3.2.2. Ban on Western Companies Participating in Russian Upstream Projects
3.2.3. Limited Access to External Financing and Appreciation of Borrowed Funds for Russian companies
3.2.4. Russia Shifts Towards Collaboration With Asian Countries
3.3. Domestic Industry Regulation
3.3.1. Consolidation Trends Within Russias Oil and Gas Industry
3.3.2. Possible Creation of a State-Owned Oilfield Services Provider (Rosgeologiya)
3.3.3. Potential State Measures Aimed at Promoting Import Substitution of Equipment in Russia
4 Challenges and Opportunities Related to the Replacement of Imported Western Technology and Equipment in the Short-Term and Mid-Term Outlook
4.1. Overview of Foreign Imported Equipment Which is Most Sensitive for the Russian Oil and Gas Industry
4.2. Analysis of Options for Import Substitution of Western Equipment and Western Spare Parts Through Domestic Production and Supplies from Asian Countries
4.2.1. Drilling Rigs Designed for Horizontal Drilling and Deepwater Offshore Drilling
4.2.2. Top Drives for Drilling Rigs
4.2.3. Drilling Tongs
4.2.4. MWD/LWD Equipment
4.2.5. Hydraulic Fracturing Equipment
4.2.6. Innovative Projects of the Skolkovo Foundation Expected to Enter the Market From 2014 Through 2020
Figure 2.1. Annual volumes of oil, gas condensate and natural gas production in Russia from 2010 through 2013, million tons, bcm Figure 2.2. Breakdown of the share of oil and condensate by Russia’s main petroleum provinces in 2013, % of nationwide production
Figure 2.3. Breakdown of production shares of natural gas by Russias main petroleum provinces in 2013, % of nationwide production
Figure 2.4. Breakdown of natural gas production volumes by gas producer from 2010 through 2012, bcm
Figure 2-5. Forecast annual oil production in Russia as a whole and its regions from 2014 through 2020, (scenario 1), million tons
Figure 2.6. Forecast annual production of natural gas in Russia as a whole and its regions from 2014 through 2020 (scenario 1), bcm
Figure 2.7. Forecast annual oil production in Russia as a whole and its regions from 2014 through 2020 (scenario 2), million tons
Figure 2-8. Forecast annual production of natural gas in Russia as a whole and its regions from 2014 through 2020 (scenario 2), million tons
Figure 2.9. Forecast annual production meters drilled in Russia as a whole and its regions from 2014 through 2020 (scenario 1), million meters
Figure 2.10. Forecast annual production meters drilled in Russia as a whole and its regions from 2014 through 2020 (scenario 2), million
Figure 2.11. Forecast annual horizontal production drilling in Russia and its regions from 2014 through 2020 (scenario 1) million tons
Figure 2.12. Forecast annual horizontal production drilling in Russia and its regions from 2014 through 2020 (scenario 2) million tons
Figure 2.13. Forecast annual exploration meters drilled in Russia as a whole and its regions from 2014 through 2020 (scenario 1) thousand meters
Figure 2.14. Forecast annual exploration meters drilled in Russia as a whole and its regions from 2014 through 2020 (scenario 2) thousand meters
Figure 3.1. GDP growth patterns in Russia from 2004 through 2014, % of growth in relation to the previous year
Figure 3.2. Brent oil price trends in 2013-2014, $/barrel
Figure 3.3. Ruble exchange rate in 2013-2014, $/RUB
Figure 3.4. Share of imported oil and gas equipment planned by the Russian Government from 2014 through 2020, % of aggregate physical volume of oil and gas equipment in the country
Figure 4.1. Breakdown of Russian fleet in 2014 by service life, % of total rig count
Figure 4.2.Breakdown of land drilling rigs by main drilling region in 2013, % of total rig count
Figure 4.3.Scope of Russias drilling fleet from2007 through 2013, units of equipment
Figure 4.4. Scope of Russias drilling rig fleet in 2013 and its forecast from 2014 through 2020, units of equipment
Figure 4.5. Breakdown of drilling rig producers in Russias total fleet in 2014, % of total rig count
Figure 4.6.Annual drilling volumes in Russias regions in 2013, 2020, % of total drilling scope
Figure 4.7. Annual drilling rig count in 2013 and forecast for 2014 through 2020, units
Figure 4.8. Russias top drive fleet in 2013 and its forecast from 2014 through 2020, units of equipment
Figure 4.9. Breakdown of top drive producers for drilling rigs in Russias nationwide fleet from 2014 through 2020, % of total rig count
Figure 4.10. Russias drilling tong fleet in 2013 and its forecast from 2014 through 2020, units of equipment
Figure 4.11. Breakdown of automatic power tong producers in Russias nationwide fleet in 2013, and its forecast for 2014 through 2020, units of equipment
Figure 4.12. Annual scope of power tong market in 2014 and forecast from 2014 through 2020, units
Figure 4.13. Forecast MWD equipment fleet in physical volumes, units
Figure 4.14. Forecast LWD equipment fleet in physical volumes, units
Figure 4.15.Breakdown of MWD/LWD equipment fleet by main drilling region in 2013, % of total rig count
Figure 4.16. Scope of MWD/LWD equipment fleet from 2013 through 2020, units
Figure 4.17. Forecast high-pressure pump fleet in Russia from 2014 through 2020, units
Figure 4.18. Share of products manufactured by various companies in Russias total high-pressure hydraulic fracturing fleet in 2013, % of total rig count
Figure 4.19.Annual scope of hydraulic fracturing pump market in 2013 and forecast from 2014 through 2020, units
Table 2.1. Exploration meters drilled in Russia from 2009 through 2013, thousand meters

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